id,user,created_at,full_text,retweeted_status,quoted_status,place,source,truncated,display_text_range,in_reply_to_status_id,in_reply_to_user_id,in_reply_to_screen_name,geo,coordinates,contributors,is_quote_status,retweet_count,favorite_count,favorited,retweeted,possibly_sensitive,lang,scopes 1475105975518765063,33521530,2021-12-26T14:07:25+00:00,"Imagine if those ""Career Days"" they do for kids came with honest guidance on probability of success: Actor - 90% luck, 5% talent, 5% hard work Doctor - 10% luck, 10% talent, 80% hard work Fireman - 5% luck, 10% talent, 85% hard work Founder - 30% luck, 20% talent, 50% hard work",,,,1f89d6a41b1505a3071169f8d0d028ba9ad6f952,0,"[0, 279]",,,,,,,0,6,98,1,0,,en, 1475112373283598346,33521530,2021-12-26T14:32:50+00:00,"For those who understand optionality, there's also an implicit life career strategy involved here: 1. go for high luck careers first to try your luck 2. try a few high talent careers to discover if you have it 3. fall back to high hard work careers as they're available to anyone",,,,1f89d6a41b1505a3071169f8d0d028ba9ad6f952,0,"[0, 280]",1475105975518765063,33521530,swyx,,,,0,2,49,0,0,,en, 1475137021014605825,33521530,2021-12-26T16:10:47+00:00,"@calcsam @Rich_Harris bit specific, people want to play in the NBA, no matter the position. Steph Curry is 6'2. that aside, to the extent that ""talent"" is innate and ""luck"" is exogenous/stochastic, i do like the characterisation of NBA careers as high-talent low-luck",,,,1f89d6a41b1505a3071169f8d0d028ba9ad6f952,0,"[22, 268]",1475135726060589063,788059556,calcsam,,,,0,0,1,0,0,,en, 1475138273899323393,33521530,2021-12-26T16:15:45+00:00,"For those who like economics: High luck industries have a huge amount of deadweight loss from all the people trying their luck (call it search/friction cost). Who's working on better models of industrial organization that more quickly identifies talent and incentivizes work?",,,,1f89d6a41b1505a3071169f8d0d028ba9ad6f952,0,"[0, 277]",1475112373283598346,33521530,swyx,,,,0,0,5,0,0,,en, 1475149420962656256,33521530,2021-12-26T17:00:03+00:00,@missingfaktor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_options_valuation,,,,1f89d6a41b1505a3071169f8d0d028ba9ad6f952,0,"[15, 38]",1475139372458647562,56127471,missingfaktor,,,,0,0,1,0,0,0,und,